As co-host of the Sports Gambling Podcast I’m always looking for new opportunities to gamble. Thanks to a number of off-shore betting sites anything that makes news in the NFL becomes an instant prop bet. So let’s get into handicapping Deflategate.
1. Tom Brady Fan Boys
Large parts of the media and even the NFL itself have giant collective man crushes on Tommy Terrific. The NFL is so in love with Tom Brady, they created a rule banning hits below the knee because one such hit cost Tommy an entire season. They have a history of protecting both him, his legacy and the QB position in general. Mike Silver summed up those in his camp best by saying, ‘There are a lot of us who love Tom Brady and ultimately we forgive’.
2. It’s The Patriots
Forgiveness may come for Tom Brady, but nobody forgets especially when it comes to the Patriots and cheating accusations. Spygate and Deflategate will both be brought up anytime the Patriots dynasty comes up. A small chink in the armor of a decade of dominance, but still a chink. Bill Belichick turned heel years ago, but this is the first time Brady has to face the role of being a bad guy.
3. It’s Just Air Pressure
We’re talking about a few PSI one way or the other. Is Tom Brady guilty of wanting the balls below the official pressure? Yes, of course, he hasn’t even come out with a full denial. He sidestepped the story so his team could focus on the Super Bowl and now he has to deal with the consequences.
Let’s be honest when we look at the NFL, a majority of the players muscles are inflated with either HGH or some other synthetic testosterone. Deflating air out of the ball isn’t even a clear advantage, it’s more a personal preference. The NFL has to factor in their recent suspension history when punishing Brady. If they only gave Ray Rice two games for taking out his girlfriend, can they really do more for Tom Brady taking out a little air?
4. The Integrity Of The Game
That term gets thrown out a lot and it’s the only thing the NFL seems committed to protecting. If it seems like a league that doesn’t punish people looking to gain a competitive advantage it opens itself for massive corruption and game fixing. The NFL is pretty clear, you can essential do anything you want off the field (sexual assault, vehicular manslaughter, dog fighting, murder, etc.) but if it doesn’t directly affect the outcome of the game they’re willing to forgive.
5. Public Perception
There is a reason the NFL released the report prior to releasing the punishment. Like a hack sports radio host who shapes their opinion to match what the listeners want to hear, the NFL is waiting for us to react before leveling their punishment.
Roger Goodell is so exhausted with being criticized he’s nominated Troy Vincent to handle the duties of punishing Tom Brady. Yes, Troy Vincent who as a CB got beat by Brady a number of times, but I’m sure he doesn’t hold a grudge.
Will Tom Brady be suspended for at least 1 game in the 2015 Regular Season as a result of Deflategate?
Yes -400 – There is a small chance the NFL caves, but too much heat to not suspend him.
Will Tom Brady be suspended for the entire 2015 Regular Season as a result of Deflategate?
No -2000 – Of course not, this is -2000 for a reason. It’s not going to happen, but if you want some guaranteed money 5% return isn’t a bad investment.
Prediction: Tom Brady will serve a one game suspension missing opening night against the Steelers. His absence and then ultimate return week two will create a huge media blitz and even bigger ratings than normal for the 2015 season. Proving once and for all that you can’t stop the NFL, you can only hope to contain it.