Week 5 saw outright upsets continue at a heavy clip. Six road dogs covered AND won their games outright. Something the Vegas wiseguys love of course. The Under won at a 8-6 clip which is further help.
We had a mediocre 3-3 showing on the day with a couple of close 1-point affairs ATS; New England (a winner) and Buffalo (a loser).
This week we join Favorite Freddie and back three small favorites. We also have three Over plays, including one on Thursday Night Football.
Packers -3 over VIKINGS
Rodgers is on a heater. GB is hitting their October stride and seems set to extend a winning streak. Bradford looked uncomfortable behind the center and was pulled before the half for Keenum, who did well enough to outpace the Bears on MNF. Do we have us a QB controversy in Minnesota?
The numbers are overwhelmingly favoring the Pack here as well. 7-2 ATS last 9 vs NFC; 19-6-1 in October; 7-2 off SU win; 10-4 last fourteen games. Minny’s numbers are a dumpster fire: 1-6 against division foes; 0-5 off SU win. This is a division rivalry, so guard the -3 in case Vikings show up. Packers win this one 33-13.
CHIEFS -4 over Steelers
It is not everyday you get line value on the only unbeaten team in the league. And as a home fave to boot. But with the betting World convinced Steelers loss to the Jags last week being a fluke, the Chiefs offer unexpected line value as a “cheap” favorite here. The line shoud be -7 or -8 points but is at this writing holding steady at -4. K.C. is 5-0 ATS this season; 5-1 vs AFC; 7-2 vs teams with winning record, and Chiefs are #2 ranked in Offense with 414 YPG. The home team in this series is 7-2 ATS. We’ll lay the -4 and ride the Andy Reid/Alex Smith train to victory!
RAIDERS -3 over Chargers
One has to dig deep to go back to the well sometimes. But we do with another play on Oakland here. The Raiders have tallied 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meets vs Chargers; 5-2 at home last seven games. Chargers are 2-9 off SU win; 1-8-1 in their last ten games ATS, and 0-5 against division opponents. Carr is out, this is a division rivalry and L.A. has shown signs of feistiness, so guard the -3 here too. Just win, baby!
PANTHERS vs Eagles – OVER 45.5
This is a deucey on Thursday Night Football. Both teams are 4-1 and looking good. Panthers offense is beginning to click under Cam Newton (finally). Philly has scored consistently from the start. It spells high scoring. The loser should be good for 24 points. Philly has gone Over 6-2-1 in their last 9 games. The Over is 4-1 in heads-up meetings. Ride the Over!
JETS vs Patriots – OVER 47
The surprisingly feisty and overachieving Gang Green are 3-2 (!) and should be good for at least 17 points here. New England is good for at least 30 with Brady and his top-ranked offense. The logic of this spells an Over play. The Over has cashed 11-4-1 in the last 16 meetings, and 5-2 when New York is hosting. Over all day!
FALCONS vs Dolphins – OVER 46
As long as Miami doesn’t give us a bagel the Over should be a safe play. Atlanta is off a bye week and eager to ramp it up off a Buffalo loss two weeks ago. I expect Matt Ryan and his offense to come out swinging. Falcons are good for 30+ points here. Miami needs to put up 13-16 points or so and this will go Over. Most of those points may come in garbage time.
The numbers agree: Atlanta is 12-1 to the over in their last 13 home games; 8-1 Over off ATS loss; 8-3 Over off a bye; and 18-7-1 Over in their last 26 games. Cash the Over!
Our week 1 pick was Falcons, who barely survived a last minute goal line stand vs the Bears in the closing seconds. A close call right out of the gate, but we survived it. In week 2, we went with the Raiders to topple the Jets in Oakland. An easy winner, 45-20. In week 3 we backed the Packers and survived another close call with a 27-24 O.T. win. We played on Seattle to win in week 4, and finally got an easy walk. Last week we were on point again with the Eagles easily dispensing of the Cards.
In the $100 Suicide Pool I play, we have already lost 75 of the 100 players who started the season. The field got further decimated for a second straight week on the backs of 6 road dogs all winning their games outright. Steelers losing was the costliest (and they were my back up choice. Pheeuw!). 19 players are left fighting for the $10,000 winner-take-all prize. We’re still alive in the Suicide pool, and that’s all that matters.
In week 6, we’ll hop on the bandwagon and back Denver Broncos to beat the banged up N.Y. Giants at Mile High. Picking double-digit chalk always makes me nervous, but a SU win will suffice here, and a NYG road victory would be an upset tantamount to the SB upset of the unbeaten Patsies in 2007. We’re banking that won’t happen on Sunday.
Teams already played on:
Atlanta, Oakland, Green Bay, Seattle, Philadelphia.
Suicide Pools are gaining popularity fast. Mainly because it is simple – just pick an outright winner every week, and the last undefeated man/woman standing wins the total pool of wagers. Sounds easy, but – believe me – it isn’t. We can guarantee you that Chiefs upsetting the Patriots on opening day cleaned out a lot of these hopefuls. The winner-take-all format is also a big appeal. The only caveat is; you can only bet on a team to win once (which can make for some interesting limitations in the final weeks of a season). A popular strategy used by many players is to select 2-3 “bad” teams and always pick one of their weekly opponents.
The BIGPLAY Podcast
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