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Nic’s Picks – NFL Week 5 Picks and Predictions

Week 4 was a second straight week filled with upsets. Seven dogs won outright and the Vegas wiseguys had another great weekend at our expense. Action was down significantly off the back of Joe Public taking a bad beating in week 3 and lacking liquid funds to wager.


 

Last week, we went into the Denver-Oakland game at 3-1 and poised for a 5-1 weekend. But Derek Carr went down with a back injury, out for 2-6 weeks. And with it went our Oakland +3 and Over 44 bets. Injuries are impossible to predict and a humbling part of the handicapping process. So, back to the drawing board…

 

This week we open strong on TNF with a double play. We also have a road dog, a home favorite and a pair of solid Over plays on Sunday.

 

Patriots -5.5 over BUCS

While this -5.5 number is slightly inflated and too high, it is still within one score. And I am not ready to fade the very reliable trend of New England RARELY if ever losing back-to-back games. Bucs come off an emotional last second win over the Giants and are due for a letdown here. Belichick and Brady are masters at making quick adjustments and the Pats will right the ship here. Bet New England early as the Public will likely pile on and push the number higher. Pats win 27-17.

 

Bills +3 over BENGALS

I somewhat reluctantly jump on the Bills bandwagon here. Buffalo are 3-1 but, more importantly, stand alone at a perfect 4-0 ATS record, and are clearly better than we all thought. But this pick is more a matter of fading the mediocre Cincy than anything else. Take the +3 points and shop the line for that precious half point hook. Bills win 20-16.

 

RAIDERS -2.5 over Ravens

The Raiders lost Derek Carr for 2-6 weeks. And while that can prove to be a devastating blow to the team, it is also already reflected in the “cheap” -2.5 line here. Flacco plain sucks, he said so himself. And we’re starting to believe him. Oakland is clearly the superior team, even without Carr under the Center, so lay the points here! Raiders cruise, 27-13.

 

OVER/UNDERS:

 

BUCS vs Patriots – UNDER 55.5

Betting Unders is often counter-intuitive and not for the feint of heart. You are essentially rooting for punts and fair catches to dominate the game. Boring at times, but also very profitable in the right spots. This is one of those spots. With the entire betting public piling on the Over and expecting a barn burner, the total is pushed pretty high at 55.5. Let’s be brave and go against the grain here. Mid 40’s max. Sweat the Under!

 

RAMS vs Seahawks – OVER 47

Rams are ranked number one on offense (!). And Wilson and his Seattle offense are hitting their stride now. It makes the 47 number seem invitingly low. We’ll keep it simple here and go for the obvious value. Barn burner with both teams scoring in the 30’s.

 

COWBOYS vs Packers – OVER 52

Touted as game of the week, this could very well prove to be a prelude to the NFC championship game in January. The stakes are high on both sides. Both teams are fighting to establish control in their divisions and need this W in a bad way. Dallas is no longer unbeatable in Jerry’s house and Rodgers keeps getting better every game. It all translates to plenty of points. A nice Teaser play is GB +8 & Over 46. Cash the Over!

 

Suicide Pool:

Our week 1 pick was Falcons, who barely survived a last minute goal line stand vs the Bears in the closing seconds. A close call right out of the gate, but we survived it. In week 2, we went with the Raiders to topple the Jets in Oakland. An easy winner, 45-20. In week 3 we backed the Packers and survived another close call with a 27-24 O.T. win. Last week we played on Seattle to win and finally got an easy walk.

In the $100 Suicide Pool I play, we have already lost 75 of the 100 players who started the season. The field got further decimated last week when 7 underdogs won games outright. 25 players are left fighting for the $10,000 winner-take-all prize. And we’re still alive in the Suicide pool, and that’s all that matters.

In week 5, we’ll hop on the bandwagon and back Philadephia Eagles to beat the Cards.

 

Teams already played on:

Atlanta, Oakland, Green Bay, Seattle.

 

Suicide Pools are gaining popularity fast. Mainly because it is simple – just pick an outright winner every week, and the last undefeated man/woman standing wins the total pool of wagers. Sounds easy, but – believe me – it isn’t. We can guarantee you that Chiefs upsetting the Patriots on opening day cleaned out a lot of these hopefuls. The winner-take-all format is also a big appeal. The only caveat is; you can only bet on a team to win once (which can make for some interesting limitations in the final weeks of a season). A popular strategy used by many players is to select 2-3 “bad” teams and always pick one of their weekly opponents.

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