NFL Week 7 ATS Picks

Week 6’s prime time games on Sunday and Monday were everything you could ever want from an NFL game, and of course, they were all that thanks to the two best players in the league: Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady.

On Monday night, Aaron Rodgers overcame the awful Packers defense to lead an epic come back in the fourth quarter, while Tom Brady reminded the Chiefs who rules the AFC on Sunday night. Both quarterbacks made it look so damn easy with the game on the line. Rodgers found Davante Adams for some seemingly impossible completions, while Brady relied on Gronk to move the ball into field goal range. They were just things of beauty.

Unfortunately, it was a brutal week for picks. I went 5 – 10 ATS bringing my seaosn total to 40 – 51 – 2, or 44.0%. Weak shit!

Denver @ Arizona (+2)

Yawn! Sure, the Broncos kept it close with the Rams, but there are no moral victories in the pass or fail NFL. They’re 2 – 4 and not very good. They’ll beat Arizona, but that’s only because Arizona is God awful. They’ve allowed 323 and 270 yards the past two weeks. That’s not a sieve, it’s a drain. And now having lost four straight games, the Denver season is circling that drain.

The Pick? 

I’m going with the Broncos, but only because Arizona is awful. You can’t trust a rookie QB on a short week against a defense that still has enough play makers to ruin Josh Rosen’s night.


LA Chargers (London) Tennessee (+6.5)

One of the few things I accurately predicted was an epic run out of the Chargers. I said they had the schedule to rattle off eight straight wins, and they’ve started off with three in a row since then. Now they get the lowly Titans, who had 106 total yards against the Ravens.


The Pick? 

Mariota was sacked eleven times, and that’s just ridiculous. The Titans are awful. I still have no fucking clue how they beat the Jaguars. LA routed the Browns, and they’ll rout the Titans in London.


New England @ Chicago (+3.5)

Just when the Bears got your hopes up, they go and drop one to the Dolphins. New England murdered those Dolphins, so I’m not sensing much intrigue to the outcome of this one in Chicago.

The Pick?

New England is back on track and looking every bit the championship team. Spread should be like six points.


Cleveland (+3) @ Tampa Bay

Cleveland gave up 38 last week while the Buccaneers gave up 34 to ATL. The Browns went down to New Orleans and did a great job of limiting the high powered Saints offense, so there’s a precedent to expect them to figure out a plan to stifle Tampa Bay. However, after last week’s performance, it almost seemed like the Cleveland defense quit and had no interest in living up to their potential.

The Pick? 

I’m not sure what went down last week in Cleveland, but they did not give a shit about playing football last week. Jameis Winston dominated the awful Atlanta defense, but Cleveland is capable of dominating in their own right. Without any wide receivers, Baker Mayfield can’t do shit. Speedy rookie Antonio Callaway averages two dropped touchdown passes a week, and Jarvis Landry, for all the pomp surrounding his abilities, has looked like shit. You can’t trust a team led by Hue Jackson.


Detroit @ Miami (+2.5)

Here’s a match up between two teams that are consistently inconsistent. You just don’t know which iteration of either squad you’ll get. Detroit has shown the most upside, beating New England and Green Bay already. They’ve got talent on offense. They’ve got a coach who is a brilliant defensive mind, so the anticipation is that the D will improve as the season goes on.

The Pick? 

Brock Osweiler sucks but he’s got a weird trend of dominating the Bears in his first start for a new team. Well, he’s not playing the Bears this weekend. He’s got the Lions. Not same.


Carolina (+4.5) @ Philadelphia

Philly got back on track against the Giants, which is like when Alabama plays Arkansas State A&M to prepare for the SEC schedule. It’s not impressive, but it’s good to know they can do it. The Eagles should win the NFC East, but it’s a pretty lackluster division. They’ll be able to beat up on the squads in the East, but they’ll have to win big games like this one to take the crown.

The Pick?

Carolina played solid defense against the Redskins, but didn’t take care of the football. When you’re struggling to score, winning the takeaway battle is of vital importance. If they correct that, they can play with the Eagles. Let’s take the points and hope for a close one in Philly this weekend.


Buffalo (+7.5) @ Indianapolis

Buffalo has seen enough of Nathan Peterman and is going to Derek Anderson at quarterback. Anderson has a big arm and a…well….nothing else really. He has no touch, but can bomb deep balls with the best of them. He’ll get the Colts, who are another terrible football team. However, the Colts have a great quarterback, and Andrew Luck doesn’t seem to be suffering any ill effects from his should anymore. He’s turning it over a bit too much, but he’s making plays.

The Pick? 

I can’t stomach going with Derek Anderson, but that’s a lot of points between two bad football teams. If it were Peterman, I’d go with the Colts, but Anderson gives me some hope he’ll connect on a deep ball or two and cover.


Cincinnati (+6) @ Kansas City

The Chiefs are always a snap away from six, no matter where they’re at on the field. Tyreek Hill is the most exciting player in football. He’s tiny and fast and I wish I had drafted him in my fantasy league. It was impressive to see them battle back against New England, even if they came up just short at the final horn.

The Pick? 

Vontaze Burfict is easily the biggest piece of shit in football. I don’t like cheap shots, but JuJu Smith-Schuster standing over his lifeless body last year was the exception. Burfict deserves blind side hits and peel back blocks every chance someone has. The Bengals are still what they always are: just good enough to win games, but not good enough to win when it counts.


Minnesota @ NY Jets (+3)

Did Sam Darnold have his coming out party against Indy last week? He certainly looked every bit the stud rookie, but as a rookie, he’s still susceptible to a game plan that confounds him and results in a bad game. On paper, Minnesota certainly qualifies as one of those teams…but they continue to play apathetic football instead of living up to their expectations.

The Pick?

The Jets are .500 and they will play .500 football the rest of the way. Minnesota, at some point, has to start looking like a contender again. On the road against a sensational rookie slinger, the Vikings finally wake up and get an impressive win.


Houston (+4.5) @ Jacksonville

I threw dirt on Houston after their  0 – 3 start, so they responded with three straight wins. Well, they beat the Colts, the Cowboys, and the Bills, so they’re winning games against shits teams. That’s better than losing games to shit squads. However, Jacksonville is not a shit squad. Sure, they can play like shit (see Titans and Cowboys games), but this is a team that can dominate you.

The Pick?

Not enough points on the road. Not to mention, Jacksonville bounces back from bad losses.


New Orleans (+2.5) @ Baltimore

A great game to ponder. Here we have the prolific Saint offense, which struggled only against the Browns. Meanwhile, the Browns defense also dominated the Ravens. So the transitive property would lead one to conclude this shall be a tight football game. But this is the NFL, and shit never makes sense.

The Pick?

The Saints had an extra week to prepare for this one. Baltimore bounced back from the awful performance in Cleveland to stymie the Titans. So something has to give. Since Cleveland showed us the Saint offense isn’t immune to a great defense, and they’re on the road, let’s go with the home boys.


Dallas (+1.5) @ Redskins

Another match up of inconsistent teams. The Skins are most definitely superior to the Cowboys, but that’s an optimal projection. They’re pretty inconsistent, but even with some injuries to key cogs last week, they still outlasted the Panthers.

The Pick?

How the hell did the Cowboys trounce the Panthers 40 – 7 last week? I’m just baffled. That’s not the team we watched all season. They had it going on all cylinders, with Zeke going for over 100 and Cole Beasley doing the same receiving. I don’t trust the Redskins, so perhaps Dallas figured some shit out?


LA Rams @ San Francisco (+10)

Watching the Niners fade against the Packers, all I could think of was Kyle Shanahan’s outfit. He looked like some kid from Jersey. I could’ve sworn it was Mike Iaconelli or The Alchemist. It just did not look like he was an NFL head coach. He’s doing all he can without Jimmy G, but it’s going to be tough sledding for the rest of the year.

The Pick?

The Rams are the NFL’s best team. They should blow them out, and Vegas agrees.


NY Giants (+6) @ Atlanta

Atlanta scores in bunches. They also get scored on in bunches. Saquon and OBJ should have a feast, but it’s up to Eli to make it happen. That’s a daunting task for the old gunslinger.

The Pick?

Atlanta will outscore them. I could see this one being a double-digit victory.


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