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NFL Week 11 Power Rankings

The name of the game among pro sports handicappers and so-called “Sharps” is to sniff out mismatches where the betting public leans heavily one way (typically on a favorite or an Over, but not always) thus creating additional value on the other side of a bet.


So how do we sniff out this “value”?

One of the most reliable tools is using a Power Rating where all 32 teams are ranked in order from best to worst with a key number attached to each team. The lower the number, the stronger the team. By taking the key number of each team in a matchup then adding or deducting three points (occasionally 3.5 pts) for home field advantage we get a key number of what the spread “should be” based on each team’s ACTUAL strength. When this number differs greatly, say by 3 or more points, to the point spread then we have successfully sniffed out “value” and a potential mismatch to exploit.

In effect, we set our own line then compare it to the oddsmakers in Vegas for weaknesses (to find a “crease” in the line).

Things are getting tighter as we near the playoffs. This week we only have three obvious mismatches and a couple of “almosts.” The PR offers value on PACKERS (again),  GIANTS (off a horrid loss to the 0-9 Niners) and COWBOYS (playing league best Philly off a loss to Atlanta). You can also add BROWNS if Jax becomes a -8 or bigger favorite, plus SEAHAWKS if the line dips to -2.5 or lower vs Falcons on MNF).

Remember, it is the savvy bettor’s job to look past the spin and crunch the numbers, then go the other way for value. It is not just about current record and who won or lost last week, it is equally or more “how” and “what” transpired that determine each weekly “tweak” to these PR numbers.

Betting value is, of course, no guarantee to win, and often involves courageous backing of teams off a loss (or multiple losses), or fading a popular and overinflated favorite off an impressive outing, but in the long run you will end up in the plus column when shopping for value. Of course, many other factor are in play, but this simple starting approach has netted me tens of thousands in profits over three decades.

I will post an updated Power Rating every week during the season, and continue to chart the outcome of these mismatches Use my Power Ranking or create your own, but do your homework if you want to win consistently.

POWER RATING (OFF WEEK 10):

Rank…..(Last)…..+/-…..Team…..PR

1…..(1)…..0…..NE…..-7

Handled Denver without problems. Brady’s Boys are on a roll to another division title, playoffs, and (probably) homefield advantage – again!

2…..(2)…..0…..PHI…..-6

Off a bye and 8-1. Wentz is looking to make it 8 wins in a row against Dallas in a critical game. Win this one as a road chalk and you have a lock on the NFC East!

3…..(3)…..0…..KC…..-5

Off a bye. Brace for a major heater with NYG, Buf, NYJ, Oak, LAC, Mia & Den left. Thank you, schedule makers!

4…..(6)…..+2…..NO…..-4.5

Pummelled the Bills. Brees’ heater of the decade continues, now 7 wins in a row. In the South, it’s all about Offense, baby!!

5…..(5)…..0…..PIT…..-4.5

I have never seen an uglier 7-2 team – EVER. Still, wins count and they are in firm control of the AFC North. Securing homefield advantage is next.

6…..(4)…..-2…..DAL…..-4

Zeke-less & Embarrassed by Matt Ryan’s Falcons. Still in it for a wild card.

7…..(7)…..0…..SEA…..-4

Won another ugly one vs the crappy Cards. Still. 6-3 if you can believe it.

8…..(8)…..0…..DET…..-2.5

Survived a barn-burner against league-worst Brownies. Still in the hunt with Minny.

9…..(10)…..+1…..LAR…..-2

Crushed Texans. Average league-best 33 pts on offense per game. Hard to stop. Watch out!

10…..(11)…..+1…..ATL…..-1.5

Delivered on must-win over Cowbags. Needs to go on a heater to catch Saints.

11…..(9)…..-2…..CAR…..-1.5

Hosted Dolphins on MNF. Cam still got issues, but team is a competitive 7-3.

12…..(15)…..+3…..MIN…..-1

Critical, gritty home victory over Skins. Now 7-2, fending off surging Lions.

13…..(14)…..+1…..BAL…..-0.5

Off a bye. Still in it with 5 of 7 games vs losing opponents. Wild Card maybe?

14…..(20)…..+6…..JAX…..0

Eeked a close one out. 4 of next 5 against soft teams Cle, Ari, Indy & Hou. Yeay!

15…..(21)…..+6…..TEN…..0

Critical win over Cincy, yet still unconvincing. 4 of next 5 on the road.

16…..(16)…..0…..GB…..0

Hundley proved he has grit…but it was vs shitty Bears. Still in a free fall.

17…..(18)…..+1…..OAK…..0

Off a bye week. Thanks to LAC and Denver floundering, still in it for a wild card.

18…..(13)…..-5…..DEN…..0

All d, no O, equals D.O.A. Sticka forkin this Denver team, they’re done.

19…..(17)…..-2…..WAS…..0.5

Couldn’t match Minny in the end. still a wild card hopeful…maybe?

20…..(12)…..-8…..HOU…..0.5

Done and done without DeShaun Watson. Defense not all that either. Free fall.

21…..(19)…..-2…..BUF…..1

Bow to the juju of Brees, bitches. Still in it thanks to Miami and NYJ twice a year…

22…..(22)…..0…..LAC…..1.5

No one is better than the Chargers at finding a way to lose a sure winner in the final minutes.

23…..(23)…..0…..CIN…..2

Another close but no cigar. Time to rebuild this dumpster fire of a team.

24…..(24)…..0…..TB…..2

So you beat the NYJ…so what? You’re still a bust and so is Winston!

25…..(26)…..+1…..ARI…..2.5

Just good enough to tie the spread as a home dog. Stick a fork in Arizona already.

26…..(25)…..-1…..NYJ…..3

Laid an egg vs TB. True Colors by Cindy Lauper now playing loud and clear.

27…..(29)…..+2…..CHI…..4

Lost to Rodgers-less GB. Embrace the spoiler role or go for draft picks.

28…..(28)…..0…..MIA…..4

Injury-riddled. Nightmare season continues. You always got Cutler. LOL.

29…..(27)…..-2…..NYG…..4.5

Welcome to the absolute bottom. NYG, you truly suck! Fire McAdoo now!

30…..(30)…..0…..IND…..4.5

Scrappy as 10+ dog, still finds a way to lose every week. Cellar dweller.

31…..(32)…..+1…..SF…..7.5

Beat NYG in stupor bowl. Enuff to crawl out of cellar. still horrible.

32…..(31)…..-1…..CLE…..8

3 good quarters vs Lions, then fell apart. Now sole winless team and worst in NFL. Yeay, first overall pick…

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