NFL Week 11 Picks and Fantasy Bits

Two days later, I still can’t get over the ending to the Jacksonville game on Sunday. The Chargers have the ball and the lead with under two minutes to play, and they fumble it. Jags return it for six, only to have that return negated. With the ball, Jacksonville gets an unnecessary roughness in the end zone, which Marquise Lee celebrates with a flagrant taunt.

Well, the refs picked up the flag on the Chargers, but the taunt was legit and pushed the Jaguars out of field goal range. Of course, Blake Bortles only needed a few yards to move them back in, but even a few yards is a very tall task for Bortles with the game on the line.

Next play?

Somehow, the Jaguars forced a very quick three and out and got the ball back, which Bortles used to set up the game tying field goal. And in overtime, there was yet ANOTHER taunting penalty against the Jaguars they had to overcome. It was a ridiculous lack of discipline out of this Jaguars team that had me fuming and I had no horse in the race.

After a 7 – 7 ATS week 10, it’s 68 – 75 – 3 on the year for 48%. It’s crunch time!

Tennessee (+7) @ Pittsburgh

Big Ben was grumbling about Thursday games. It’s been time to rid ourselves of these games for years. Obviously the NFL likes money, and this game makes them money or else they wouldn’t do it. It’s the only reason. The games usually suck, except for that OAK/KC game a few weeks ago. That was awesome.

The Pick?

Not sure how Pittsburgh sucked for so long against the Colts, but a win is a win. Except against the spread, a win isn’t always a win. And thus, our dilemma in this one. I just don’t know how the Titans are 6 – 3, but they are. I don’t think they’re as good as their record indicates, so I think the Steelers cover at home on the short week.


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Detroit @ Chicago (+3)

For a moment, people who don’t follow the Browns thought the Lions would give them their first win. The rest of us, of course, chuckled each time the Browns took the lead. We knew the Lions would win and cover.

The Pick?

Detroit’s pretty stout against the run, which bodes poorly for the Bears. But the Browns really ran amok against the Lions, which bodes well for the Bears. So wash that out and recognize Stafford is the difference maker and Detroit rolls again.


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Kansas City @ NY Giants

The Giants suck. Bad.

The Pick?

Picking a double-digit road favorite is akin to staying on 16 with the dealer showing 10, but fuck it. The Giants suck.


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Tampa Bay (+2.5) @ Miami

Taking Ryan Fitzdawg against his old squad was the easiest money last week. And if only Desean Jackson could’ve gotten into the end zone, my prophecy on that game would’ve been Nostradamus level good.

The Pick?

Miami is swirling the drain. Tampa gets Mike Evans back, just another weapon for Fitzdawg to utilize in this one. It’s a paltry spread that TB covers on the short road trip.


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Baltimore @ Green Bay (+2)

Green Bay’s not only working with backup Brett Hundley, but they’re down to practice squad guys at running back. That’s never a good situation. You’d like a work horse to take the load off your shaky and inexperienced QB, but that’s not a luxury the Packers have right now.

The Pick?

I’m back and forth on this Raven defense from week to week. This week, I’m on them. They don’t have to worry about stopping the run and that will allow them to mess with Hundley. Should be a real easy cover.


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LA Rams (+2.5) @ Minnesota

Here’s a couple of teams that have been piling up the points. On the turf, under the dome, there’s nothing inclement to stifle these prolific offenses. The Viking defense will get a huge test to see if they’re up to the task of slowing down an offense with the prowess of the Rams.

The Pick?

It’s hard to not take these points. The Rams just look like they’re firing on all cylinders offensively. I’m not worried about them on the road. You give me the Rams and points, I’ll feel real good about that one.


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Arizona @ Houston (+1.5)

Here’s a gigantic “who gives a shit?” game of the week nominee.

The Pick?

Browns fans care the most about this game because that Houson pick keeps looking better and better. The loss of Deshaun Watson seems to have demoralized them, and rightfully so. He was the one ray of light and now their season is gone and they just don’t care anymore.


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Jacksonville @ Cleveland (+7.5)

Man, if you can get your paws on that Jacksonville defense you’ll go places this weekend. Sure, DeShone Kizer looked much better last week, but that’s not saying much. He’s going to look his usual terrible self again against Jacksonville.

The Pick?

The Browns are that bad. Trust me. There’s going to be an 0 – 16 parade this year. Even when Kizer makes a rare accurate throw, guys like Seth DeValve either drop them or catch them and promptly fumble to give the other team a return for six. This spread should be around 13.5 for me to consider Cleveland.


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Redskins (+8) @ New Orleans

We spent the last few years shovel-ready to throw the dirt on the Drew Brees and Sean Payton era in the Big Easy. Now, we’re all eating crow. The Saints have a legitimate defense and it’s got them cruising behind an offense that can’t be slowed down.

The Pick?

This is an outstanding spread by Vegas. These guys really know their shit. There’s no doubt the Saints will score in droves against the Skins, but will their defense be able to stymie Kirk Cousins? It seems like the dream game for Cousins to put up 400 yards and four touchdowns, but come up short. How short? I don’t know. Before I decide, start Cousins in your dailies and reap those benefits. He’ll lead a drive late to get it within a touchdown before the Saints recover the onside kick late to ice it.


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Buffalo (+4) @ LA Chargers

The Saints rolled into Buffalo and rolled right the fuck over the Bills. That was a rather demoralizing performance by a defense I previously held in high esteem. Drew Brees was simply a game manager with his running backs both going for over 100 in this one.

The Pick?

The Chargers weren’t dominate, but they certainly snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. They don’t have the running attack or the passing attack of the Saints. We’ve got the old cross-country flight by the Bills factor in this one, but they’re getting four points. I think the Bills right the ship and those points aren’t even needed.


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Cincinnati (+2.5) @ Denver

We had a nice AJ Green sighting last week, but that sledding is much tougher against the Broncos. Wait, no it’s not. The Broncos have lost five straight and surrendered an average of 33 in those losses. That’s from a supposed dominant defense? Oh, ok.

The Pick?

Another one of those no one gives a crap games. These teams are both out of it and done for. It’s all about pride, and the Broncos have not shown they have any left this season. I’ll take the points on the road and hope Dalton and Green keep their sick tight connection.


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New England (in Mexico City) Oakland (+6.5)

A bye was sorely needed by the Raiders. They get to rest up, get their minds right, and prepare for a trip south of the border to face the Patriots. Sure, the Patriots are rolling. That’s what the Patriots do. They roll. They dominate. They make lesser teams look shitty.

The Pick?

As much as I want to pick Oakland, I’m going to pick Oakland. This isn’t a brain pick, it’s a gut. A deep gut pick. There’s just this feeling the Raiders come off the bye rejuvenated and put up a performance like they did against the Chiefs. Even if they come up short, getting 6.5 helps big time.


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Philadelphia @ Dallas (+3)

No Zeke? Problem. Big time problem. They did nothing against the Falcons. Not a damn things.

The Pick?

Three points? That’s all? Man, you could give Dallas 10 and I’d still be high on the Eagles. It’s gonna be a blood bath.


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Atlanta (+3) @ Seattle

Pretty good Monday night match up. Perhaps the Falcons got a bit of mojo back against the Cowboys. Perhaps the lack of a ground game in Seattle puts too much pressure on Russ Wilson. Perhaps I’m overthinking it.

The Pick?

I bet this spread would’ve been like 7 before the Falcons beat the Cowboys. I’m not going to read too much into that one Falcon win. They’ve been unimpressive all year and asking them to keep it field goal tight in Seattle is a lot to ask.


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